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Friday Forex trading focus | 26.10.18

October 26, 2018

 

Before I go over the forex trading focus for today I want to recap on what happened with the ECB meeting yesterday as it weakened the EURO pretty well...

 

Before I discuss this I want to show-off a little and show what was said in my free forex trading room a few minutes prior to the ECB event.

 

Ok now that we can all agree I got mad skillz... lets move over to what the ECB did yesterday to weaken the EUR:

 

Yesterday, Mario Draghi provided some very interesting remarks in the press conference where he acknowledged that data the Eurozone has been printing was weaker than expected.

 

Furthermore, the ECB did not formally announce an end to the APP by the end of the year which leads me believe that the next ECB meeting (which takes place on the 13th December) should lead to a pretty big reaction. 

 

Now let's move to today's possible market movers:

 

Today we have 3 possible market impact events, the first is coming up pretty soon and it comes out of Russia, which clearly could impact the RUB pairs, the second event is the US GDP figures and finally we have another speech by Draghi, this speech should not affect the markets, but you never know with these guys...

 

Ok, lets break down the fundamental releases.

 

USA: We are due to receive the first estimate of GDP growth in Q3. 

 

The Atlanta Fed's estimate says it was 3.9% q/q AR, while the NY Fed Nowcast indicator says it was just 2.2% q/q AR.

 

Probably the correct figure will be somewhere in the middle of these two numbers, but we'll have to wait closer to the event to give my direct expectations which I will do in the trading room.

 

In Russia, the Bank of Russia (CBR) will release it's monetary policy decision, and the market expects big moves here.

 

Inflation has started climbing on a low base effect and fuel price increases. At the same time, the approaching VAT hike and the surge in the RUB's volatility have pushed up inflation expectations, which are closely monitored by the CBR.

 

While we expect Russia's key rate to remain unchanged at 7.50% today, there is a risk that the CBR could refer to surging inflation expectations and deliver a 25bp hike.

 

 

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